A Trump-Putin Deal on Ukraine and the U.S.-China-Russia Triangle

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump meet in Alaska on August 15, 2025. (Photo: Wikimedia Commons)

The triangular relationship between the United States, China, and Russia will shape global politics in the years ahead.

When two of these powers move closer, they gain decisive leverage over the one that is left out. The American search for a deal with Moscow can be read as a response to Russia’s growing alignment with Beijing that resulted from Western sanctions.

Russia may be the weakest of the three global players, yet it retains the capacity to tip the balance. Europe also has the potential to act at this level, but without greater unity it risks drifting into a subordinate role within the transatlantic relationship.

These shifts show that we need a different way of thinking about international relations. We must understand the forces at play, their dynamics, and the search for more sustainable forms of equilibrium in a rapidly changing world. Without understanding these processes, only resignation and hopelessness remain.

That is the core message of my book Dare We Hope?